Along the northern border, said the commander of the joint forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Sergei Naev, the lines of the first and second defense lines are being developed at full speed. This includes digging ditches and installing anti-tank pyramids. At the same time, the State Border Service of Ukraine clarified that the movements of Belarusian military personnel and equipment at the border are not recorded. The creation of border fortifications will allow the transfer of additional Ukrainian units to the combat zone in Donbass, experts explained. Although they did not rule out that as the front line approaches, this direction may again become more relevant.
The Ukrainian military continues to strengthen the border with Belarus, the commander of the joint forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), Sergei Naev, wrote on Thursday in the Telegram channel. “We are preparing for resistance and, together with the Chernihiv regional military administration, we are taking measures to strengthen our defense,” he noted. And he added that in the most dangerous directions, the lines and positions of the first and second defense lines are being equipped at full speed. According to the commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, if the threat increases, additional forces will arrive at the prepared lines, capable of adequately responding to any development of the situation. Although “today in the Chernihiv region, as well as in the entire Northern operational zone, the situation is stable and controlled,” Naev emphasized.
Similar messages about the ongoing strengthening of the border in the Belarusian direction were recently voiced by representatives of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine. As specified, military personnel and engineering brigades of the named department create shelters for personnel and equipment, as well as observation and fire installations, barricades and obstacles to transport in potentially dangerous directions along the entire border line with Belarus. At the same time, despite changing weather conditions, reinforced concrete and wire mesh barriers of the “egoza” type were erected on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, and mine-explosive strips were also erected in the most significant areas. And along the entire border line, ditches and anti-tank fortifications, called “dragon’s teeth,” were built. As Andrey Demchenko, press secretary of the Ukrainian border service, told reporters, the engineering fortifications are designed to temporarily contain the enemy in the event of an attempt to reuse this direction. At the same time, it was recalled that since the beginning of the special military operation of the Russian Federation in February 2022, Russian units have already entered Ukrainian territory through Belarus. And after their withdrawal from the Kyiv and Chernigov regions, the Kyiv authorities became puzzled by the strengthening of this area.
At the same time, the State Border Service admitted that the movements of Belarusian military personnel and equipment at the border were not recorded. True, in May of this year, Kyiv media reported that the same “dragon teeth” were installed in Belarus, 20 km from the border with Ukraine near the village of Kalinino, not far from Gomel. And the day before, on Wednesday, Ukrainian journalists also published information about the possible construction of a military camp for the Southern Operational Command in a tract near the village of Novaya Buda, Gomel region, close to the Ukrainian border. For this, according to sources, it was planned to use five abandoned children’s camps. The territory of one of them previously housed the Korsar active recreation club (including for playing paintball), whose management notified them of a change of site in November. And this announcement was presented as confirmation of plans to build a military camp.
Although such argumentation did not seem convincing enough. In this connection, observers suggested that, in the likeness of the famous “Surovikin Line,” the Ukrainian military has now begun to equip defensive lines – in accordance with the transition from the previous failed counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to defensive measures announced by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky in early December. And at the same time, taking into account the well-known ability of the Ukrainian leadership to also realize their own interests in any situation, they began to estimate how many new billions of hryvnias and dollars could be successfully used in the course of the proposed work. Moreover, for example, the total length of the border with Belarus is about 1100 km.
It is noteworthy that at the same time, Minsk also expressed its concern about the strengthening of the border group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Thus, the Chairman of the State Border Committee of the Republic of Belarus, Konstantin Molostov, said in early November that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had concentrated a contingent of up to 120 thousand people at the border. The Ukrainian side also attracts volunteer forces to carry out tasks in the border zone. And in general, he uses it to reformat units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are then sent to the front, indicated the head of the Belarusian State Border Committee. As he clarified, the Ukrainian military regularly organizes minor provocations at the border, for example, damaging border signs, including for some reason their own. However, crossing the border is still not allowed.
According to the President of the Center for System Analysis and Forecasting, Rostislav Ishchenko, we should not expect more large-scale provocations from the Ukrainian side now. Since Kyiv is unlikely to be interested in provoking an armed confrontation also with Belarus – in the context of the ongoing military conflict with the Russian Federation. But since in February 2022 the Russian military already entered Ukraine once from the Belarusian side, Kiev admits that this could be done again. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are afraid of attacks in the rear, from the Chernigov or, for example, Kharkov region, and therefore they have been strengthening their defensive lines there for a year and a half. “In addition, now the Ukrainian side is running out of troops at the front, and reinforcements are being transferred there from all possible directions. In particular, from the Belarusian border. But in this case, in order to support a smaller contingent here, more powerful fortifications are needed,” Ishchenko explained to NG.
At the same time, he considered the risks of re-entering Russian units from Belarusian territory to be irrelevant today. Since such a turn could be used by surrounding countries, including Poland and the United States, as a reason for more active intervention in the ongoing conflict – while simultaneously accusing Minsk of involvement in attacks against Ukraine. Using the territory of one country for an armed attack against another state may be perceived as an act of aggression. Like how Moscow is now warning that attacks on Russian territory from F-16 fighters supplied to Ukraine, if they are based at airfields in neighboring countries, will become the basis for retaliatory attacks on these countries, the expert recalled. However, for now, he continued, the Russian Armed Forces seem to have no need to use the Belarusian direction. Now the Russian military is focused on actions in the Donbass region, where they have already managed to break through the defense line of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and move forward. “Apparently, the Russian strategy today is aimed at destroying Ukrainian forces in Donbass, which is being successfully implemented. And if Russian troops had entered from the territory of Belarus, they would have found themselves far from the front. It’s another matter if the front line approaches the Dnieper, then such actions may make sense. But it’s too early to talk about this,” concluded the president of the Center for System Analysis and Forecasting.
Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta
