With the arrival of winter, the Russian army in Ukraine has noticeably become more active: it is slowly but persistently advancing on several sectors of the front at once. About the situation on the battle line – in the BBC review.
“The enemy has made progress south of Bakhmut, near Kleschievka, west of Rabotino, in the southern part of Marinka and south, north of Novomikhailovka, and has captured the Avdeevka industrial zone,” reports the Ukrainian OSINT portal DeepState.
“The situation along the entire collision line is simply bad,” says his analysis note.
Reports from knowledgeable sources on both sides about the situation on the fronts generally do not contradict each other. The Ukrainians do not hide the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are forced to retreat under the pressure of superior enemy forces, the Russians admit that advancement comes at the cost of huge losses.
“There was a village over there. Here is our equipment, a mass grave, how many of our guys died here,” a Russian participant in the battles near Avdeevka says in the video. — That’s what war does. All this is our technology. There’s another mass grave ahead,” he points to the broken Russian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.
Russian attacks come predominantly in human waves along the entire front line – partly due to the lack of armored vehicles, weather conditions in some places, and perhaps the Russian command’s awareness of the futility of concentrating large mechanized formations in one place. This is exactly how units of the Wagner PMC acted in Bakhmut – just like now, the activation of Russian troops also occurred during the cold season.
But then the attack by Russian troops was aimed at one area. Now they operate according to the same pattern on many fronts.
Avdeevka
For the third month now, Russian troops have been waging a fierce assault on Avdeevka, a small, now almost destroyed city north of Donetsk.
The original plan was to surround the city with powerful flank attacks from the south and north; large mechanized formations and a large amount of artillery were thrown into the battle. At the first stage, Russian units managed to oust the Ukrainians from a number of positions and take fire control over the route along which the Avdiivka fortified area is supplied.
At some point, it seemed that the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces units defending the city had become completely threatening.
However, the Russian advance soon slowed down, attempts to continue the offensive were increasingly unsuccessful, and in some places Ukrainian troops successfully counterattacked and recaptured lost positions.
The current situation near Avdiivka is increasingly being compared by combatants on both sides to the “Bakhmut meat grinder.”
“Russia lost 13 thousand people during the two months of its offensive near Avdeevka, as well as over 220 pieces of equipment. These are six maneuver battalions. Putin still wants to conquer Ukraine, but his offensive has not produced any strategic gains,” White House National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson told CNN.
The Russian onslaught continues, but is now being conducted primarily by small groups of infantry. At the forefront of the attacks are the “Storm-Z” groups formed from former prisoners – a kind of penal companies known from the Second World War.
Recently, reports from near Avdeevka often include an industrial zone captured by Russian units on the eastern outskirts. It is located on a hill, and from it Russian troops are trying to break through to the remains of urban development. However, Russia was not able to quickly develop its success in the industrial zone, and the situation there for the Ukrainian Armed Forces looks even more stable than in other areas.
Marinka
The situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces defending settlements to the west of Donetsk is becoming increasingly difficult. The small town of Maryinka, which remained under Ukrainian control since 2014 and, together with Avdiivka, served as a powerful fortified area, is now almost completely captured.
Ukrainian troops hold only the western outskirts of Marinka, and in the meantime are building new defensive lines several kilometers west of the city.
“The situation in Marinka is critical. And although the osinters cannot disclose specific details, the loss of Marinka is a matter of time, writes a Ukrainian reserve officer under the nickname Tatarigami_UA on the social network X. — This will create operational opportunities for Russia to advance to Kurakhovo and Ugledar. If the Russians can force the Ugledar defenders to withdraw, they will be able to restore a key rail line, significantly reducing transportation time and adding mobility to their units.”
Bakhmut
As a result of counterattacks by Russian troops on the flanks of Bakhmut, they managed to partially recapture the positions lost during the summer-autumn offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. If to the south of the city the advance of the Russians turned out to be small, then to the north and north-west they are already on the approaches to Chasov Yar – the main Ukrainian fortified area, blocking their path to Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk.
“On the northern flank of Bakhmut there are fierce battles near Bogdanovka and near the Chasov Yar-Khromovo highway. The command of the 3rd assault brigade “Azov”, due to large losses in manpower, was forced to send the unit to the rear for replenishment, reports the Russian telegram channel “Rybar”. — To the west of Bakhmut, Russian troops drove the enemy out of the forest belt adjacent to the Eighth Headquarters. In Kleshchievka, after taking height 215.7, units of the Russian Armed Forces expanded the control zone by 200 meters.”
The Russian command is trying to break through to Chasov Yar from the north, bypassing Bogdanovka, and from the south, bypassing Kleschievka, bringing fresh forces into the battle. At this stage, it is unlikely that these offensive actions pose a serious threat to the position of Ukrainian troops occupying higher positions west of Bakhmut. But it is obvious that they will have to forget about their own plans to encircle the Russian group in Bakhmut.
A small consolation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this direction was the successful attack on Russian positions on the outskirts of Gorlovka and the capture of the waste heap at the Gagarin mine, which had been under the control of Russian forces since 2014.
Kupyansk and Liman
Russian troops continue to attempt an offensive on Sinkovka, a small village in the north-east of the Kharkov region, where an important defense line of Kupyansk is located. The loss of Kupyansk and the railway line passing through it in the fall of 2022 was the main reason for the hasty retreat of the Russian group from Izyum.
Continuous assaults continue in the Limansky direction, in the Serebryansky forestry.
Both near Kupyansk and near Liman the battles go on with varying success, positions change hands.
Military experts regard both of these areas as secondary, but do not exclude the possibility that in the event of serious success at Bakhmut, the Russian command may combine the efforts of its groups and launch a larger-scale offensive.
Tokmak
On the southern sector of the front, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces planned to carry out a grandiose offensive operation in the summer, the fighting took on a positional character. However, exacerbations occur there from time to time.
Last week, Russian motorized infantry and paratroopers tried to recapture positions in the area of the villages of Rabotino and Verbovoye. Over two days of continuous attacks, they managed to advance 800 meters in the direction of Rabotino, but near Verbov the result was zero.
Left bank of the Dnieper
Fierce fighting continues in the area of the village of Krynki on the left bank of the Dnieper, where a Ukrainian bridgehead was formed in the fall. The Ukrainian marines entrenched there are trying to expand the zone of control, and the Russian group of troops “Dnepr” is trying to destroy the advanced units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with continuous assaults.
Neither one nor the other works out, but at the same time, the relatively small Ukrainian landing force draws on the Russian units that are many times larger than it.
“[Commander of the Russian Airborne Forces] General Teplinsky did not lie. He continues to launch continuous attacks in the area. Krynki their direct subordinates – units and units of the 104th Airborne Division, just to liquidate the Ukrainian bridgehead,” writes Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets.
For the Russian army, the situation there is complicated by the high opposite bank of the Dnieper, where Ukrainian artillery occupies a dominant position. But a suspension of fighting there is also not expected yet.
Brief summary
With the arrival of winter, there was no calm on the fronts in Ukraine, just like a year ago. Moreover, the Russian army is increasingly trying to seize the initiative and is constantly attacking on various fronts, often paying a huge price for it.
The Ukrainian army is switching to strategic defense and, perhaps, the tactics tested in the spring and summer of 2022 of grinding down advancing Russian units at the cost of small territorial losses.
With such intensity of fighting (regardless of their intermediate results), the key problem for the command of both armies may be replenishing losses in manpower.
In subsequent military operations, and many more are clearly expected, the advantage will be given to the side that manages not only to preserve the most combat-ready core of its armed forces, but also to organize continuous replenishment and combat training of personnel. This is difficult for both Ukraine and Russia.
The point is not even in the methods of conscripting citizens for military service, which are used by Moscow and Kiev – they are essentially similar – but in the fact that the longer the war goes on, the less prospects it has and the more coffins and crippled soldiers return from there, the more difficult it is authorities to encourage people to go to the front. Whose motivation will be stronger is probably the main question now.
Source : BBC
