In light of the reduction in aid to Ukraine, which is forced to confront Russian aggression, a number of opinion leaders and analysts have begun to speak out about what the defeat of Kyiv will entail. Victor Pinchuk, the founder of the Interpipe Group and philanthropist, who ranks fourth in the Forbes Ukraine “20 Richest Ukrainians 2022” ranking, also did not stand aside. He wrote a column for Politico arguing why supporting Ukraine was primarily in Western interests. Forbes summarizes it
The trend towards a decrease in financial and military support for Ukraine may become the most devastating mistake of the West, which will have negative consequences not only for Ukraine. a>
Destruction and death
You should not count on the fact that freezing the war will bring stability, because Russia will throw all its forces into conquering Ukraine. The example of Mariupol clearly demonstrates what happens when the “Russian world” sets in: about 25,000 people were killed in the city and 90% of residential buildings were destroyed. Prison, torture or death await those who refuse to “belong” to Russia. Have you forgotten about Bucha? There were 37,000 inhabitants – the population of Ukraine is about 44 million people.
Refugees and expenses
The arrival of the “Russian world” will force even more Ukrainians to seek refuge abroad, and 6.3 million people have already gone there. Many of them found work in Europe, but each of them costs their host countries several hundred euros per month. If, for example, another 5 million people leave the Ukrainian cities destroyed by the Russians, this will cost Europe additional tens of billions of euros a year.
New candidates for “dismissal”
Meanwhile, the Baltic countries and Poland will suffer fromRussian threats and hybrid warfare. After all, the Kremlin will figure that it worked in Ukraine, so why not try somewhere else? Military aggression mayreach Moldova and intensify in Georgia.
Spread of radical views
Russia’s successes in Ukraine are intensifying the activities ofradical and populist parties in Europe that sympathize with Russia. We are already seeing that pro-Russian candidates have achieved positions of power or are gaining popularity, and their number is likely to only increase.
New and expensive arms races
Let’s look at the statistics on arms spending during the Cold War: defense budgets of European countries averaged 3.5% of GDP, and today they do not even reach 2%. To return to these levels, you will need to spend additional annually:
- Great Britain – $39 billion;
- Germany – $86 billion;
- France – $43 billion;
- NATO as a whole – $410 billion.
And this is only if there is no active war between Russia and NATO due to Moscow’s offensive against an Alliance member country. Then the costs will be much higher, and you will also have to send your own soldiers to the war.
Union of World Terrorists
There is no doubt that Russia will increase its support for terrorists around the world, which will increase cooperation with Iran and North Korea. These regimes, for which death, terror, and fear are the methods of control and influence within their countries and abroad, will again and again challenge the Western world. And all the additional crises in the West are a reason for schadenfreude and the activation of its enemies.
And then there is China, which is carefully observing how well the West defends the order that it itself has established. If Beijing sees that aggression against other countries is not met with a worthy response, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will become more likely.
Think about it, Europe and the USA
You, residents of the Western world, may believe that a truce in the Russian-Ukrainian war will save lives and save your money. However, Russia uses this time only to regroup and accumulate additional forces for a subsequent attack.
You should not assume that only Ukraine will suffer from this. Remember, the Kremlin is initially talkingabout a war with the West, about the establishment of a new world order, in which dictatorship will be as strong as freedom and democracy are now. That is why Russia will not have enough of Ukraine and she does not hide it.
Therefore, Western spending will not decrease, but will only skyrocket. Here’s another retrospective:
- During World War II, the United States spent an average of 4.9% of GDP per year supporting the USSR and France.
- The Korean War cost the United States 2.8% of GDP per year.
- The Americans spent about $4 trillion on the war on terrorism.
Today, only 0.3% of the US GDP and 0.4% of the GDP of European countries have been sent to Ukraine – and this includesfinancial and humanitarian assistance, and not just military.
I am convinced that continued support for Ukraine meets the interests of the United States, Europe and other allies of Kyiv, forhelp to which I am infinitely grateful for almost two years .
By sending a small portion of your countries’ GDP to Ukraine, you will not have to send your own soldiers to shed blood in the future, and Ukraine will be able to contain the advance of the greatest modern threat to the international order.
If you do this faster (if the West had given everything we got now last year, Ukraine would have already knocked out Russia) and more efficiently, you will be able to preserve your way of life in a world where security and freedom reign.
Source : Forbes Ukraine
